As early as December, notaries of Greater Paris and the Supreme Council of Notaries Public warned. Behind the record 1.2 million deals in 2021, existing housing stock is running out and apartment and house prices are rising, in the Paris region and especially in the provinces.
New construction is still struggling
“Real estate is a good investment today and a topic that will continue to be attractive in the future,” BPCE Group Director of Economic and Future Studies, Alan Turgeman, confirms on January 18, before qualifying: “Real estate fever is down. The impact on prices is likely to be stronger tomorrow.”
Especially since at the same time, new construction is still struggling. If, according to official statistics, 470,000 new housing units were started between December 2020 and November 2021, this would not be enough to make up for the 381,600 building permits canceled in 2020. This is also very small compared to 2019 (410,000), 2018 (414,100) and the 2017 record ( 497,000 housing units).
Thermal refineries are on the rise
Added to this crisis is the proliferation of thermal sieves, these dwellings that consume a lot of energy and whose bills affect the purchasing power of their residents. According to the Ministry of Environmental Transformation, there are approximately 4.8 million. The data is disputed by the president of the National Real Estate Association (FNAIM), Jean-Marc Turillion, who estimates their number at 7 or even 8 million.
These habitats are on the verge of being out of lease since the Climate and Resilience Act was passed in August 2021. According to this professional, 650,000 housing units rated “G,” the worst category of a Mandatory Performance Diagnostic (DPE), will leave the building stock in 2025, followed by 1.05 million “F” grades in 2028 and 1.9 million “E” grades in 2034.
Voices are starting to rise demanding some flexibility in the face of this tight schedule, including the voice of Alan Turgeman from the group BPCE. financier judges “It is unreasonable to imagine that in a few years, half or even two-thirds of thermal sieves will be processed.” On the contrary, it asks a “shift deadlines”, Especially in residential units. If so, it will happen Complete blockage of purchases and sales.
Matignon communicates about renewal and wastelands
Calendar opportunity, the Prime Minister just reported €6.7 billion for energy renovation in buildings (4 billion for the public park, 2.7 billion for Spread) Issued under France Relance’s €100 billion plan.
“ In 2021, significantly 765,000 families were seized MaPrimeRénov to renovate their housing and 660,000 applications for bonuses were accepted,” Jan Castex wrote. Energy savings made through housing under state assistance since 2019 have improved from less than 4 MWh per dwelling with the Energy Transfer Tax Credit (CITE) to more than 5 MWh per dwelling in the first half of 2021 with MaPrimeRénov” , Add.
In this statement sent to the press, the Matignon tenant also mentioned 1,055 winning projects from the Arid Land Fund, which were awarded first 300 million euros, then 650 million and finally 750 million euros. “5.5 million square meters of housing and 3.1 square meters of economic activities such as offices, shops or industrial activities will be built on these waste lands,” Matignon tenant details.
To achieve net artificial zero for soils, the Climate and Resilience Act sets, once again, a goal, within the next 10 years, to halve land consumption. Strong ambition in light of the desire of 75% of French from all sources to live or build a house.
“The city is no longer an absolute necessity”
Indeed, between overheating in old estates, declining new construction, bans on thermal sieves and a bet on de-industrialization, housing will become a nuisance.
“I think that through the crisis, we have the beginnings of a solution,” Alan Tarjman is from the BPCE Collection.
“Urbanization is no longer an absolute necessity, and an obligation for everyone. It is possible to organize a space other than by saturating it, but by intensifying the rest,” says the Director of Economic and Future Studies.
For this financier, it is first necessary to facilitate housing for the French in the least expensive regions by guaranteeing a transport policy “Make everyday life economically viable.” In other words, instead of confining the French to an unsustainable model with a garden car, we should combine proactive land use planning policies with mobility solutions.
Residential vacancies will decrease
According to him, deferring the French outside the major cities would also reduce the vacancy of housing outside them. That’s good: Housing Minister Emmanuel Wargon has just relaunched the “affordable rent” system to encourage landlords to lease their unfurnished properties at set rents to tenants under the resource cap for 6 to 9 years.
“Having been forced to over-build in big cities to meet needs and net increases in population, anything that encourages resettlement in small and medium-sized cities will make it possible to reinvest in housing where it is possible to do work,” Confirms Alan Torgoman of the BPCE Group.
In this area, the government launched, at the end of 2018, the “Denormandie dans l’ancien” scheme that allows you to benefit from a tax advantage provided that you buy property in the mentioned municipalities and carry out improvement works there. For example, buying a property in Beauvais (Oise) for 150,000 euros, managing a construction site for 50,000 euros and renting it for 12 years allows you to deduct 42,000 euros from your income tax. However, according to close sources, the latter did not arouse the hoped-for enthusiasm.